Monsoons this year

[manishmatu]

Hi,

We are arriving in KTM on 2nd Oct, for the EBC trek. I have heard that the monsoons in Nepal this year have been particularily harsh.

Is it still raining in KTM and Everest region ? Any idea about the forecast for the next 2 weeks ? I just wanna decide whether to postpone our trek by a week ....

cheers,
- manish

[Sujoy]

If you can it would be ideal though the monsoons should pull out by the first week of October.

[aubergine]

I arrived in KTM on Friday afternoon and it was pretty cloudy and showery - spoke to a guy in a trekking shop and he said that for the previous few days no flights had been going out, and only two went on Friday to the medical post at Pheriche (I think). He reckoned the weather is clearing up a bit now though
. I hope so - my flight is tomorrow!

[aubergine]

OK I spoke too soon. First two Tara Air flights went this morning, and a couple of Buddha Air flights, but at 12 noon it was announced that all Lukla flights were cancelled. It doesn't look like the weather is going to be much better tomorrow either.

[yakshaver]

OK I spoke too soon. First two Tara Air flights went this morning, and a couple of Buddha Air flights, but at 12 noon it was announced that all Lukla flights were cancelled. It doesn't look like the weather is going to be much better tomorrow either.

This seems to be the pattern these days more often than not. Cancellations at of before lunch. Lukla gets more and more like Jomsom.

[Sujoy]

There are still no reports of the withdrawal of the monsoon from the sub continent. Usually this happens in the first week of October.

[MaKo]

Hi, we are flying to KTM the 2nd of Oct., for the AC trek. Is the Annapurna region usually longer affected by the monsoon ?

thanks

[Humid Northerlies]

Avoid weather.com and accuweather in general. In particular, weather.com is based on one of the worse meteorological models in the world (they use it because it's free).
Accuweather for me add too much fiddly post processing and can come up with complete rubbish.

If you want automated forecasts, use:
http://www.yr.no/place/Nepal/Other/Kathmandu/

It's based on the ECMWF model, which is the best in the world.

Also try

http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/

Otherwise, use:

http://www.mfd.gov.np/index.php

In Special Weather Bulletin they will mention anything relevant about the monsoon. Last year it withdrew on the 26th September, but the withdrawal of the monsoon does not mean an abrupt end to rainfall.

Unlike last year, we are in La Nina conditions, which tend to encourage more vigorous monsoons (last year was a developing El Nino, which weakens the monsoon). So you would expect the monsoon this year to last a little longer and bring more rain.


For drawn charts use:

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/weather_map.php

It's the Thai service but it useful because it covers the area of interest. The sequence of lows over northern India/Nepal look like the monsoon trough. Just to the north is the Tibetan High forming. It is about 5 degrees further south than just a few days ago. I would like to think that is a precursor to the monsoon fading in the near future, but I'm not certain whether it's seasonal or a transient feature. In that part of the world, it is likely seasonal, which makes me optimistic....

[yakshaver]

Hi, we are flying to KTM the 2nd of Oct., for the AC trek. Is the Annapurna region usually longer affected by the monsoon ?

thanks

Annapruna Circuit is actually ok to be done even during the monsoon, as the portion from about Chame (2550m) on the Marsyangdi side, to Jomsom on the Kali Gandaki side - is in the "monsoon shadow", so it gets a lot less precipitation. I did the AC in July 06, and then just the Jomsom trek in June 07. In the monsoon shadow area, rains were short and not powerful at all. Just enough to keep the areas green, and with flowers.

So you'd expect about 11-12 days of not-quite-monsoon weather.

So if you go in October, even if there is still rain, it will only affect you for the first 3 days, and them the last 3 three days.