Unregistered
1st April 2005, 07:04 PM
The latest
15 March: I have refrained from commenting on the new situation in Nepal until now.
The Maoists have been fracturing, now the hardliner elements have taken over, and while things will get worse for a time, this is the beginning of the end for them. They are losing control. They already have zero popular support anywhere in the hills, including their supposed strongholds in Far West Nepal, but are blind to this. Now regional commanders have been given autonomy, no pretence that they have central control, and those regional commanders will make big mistakes. Nepal is nearly at the bottom of the valley with the hill of peace visible ahead; although the bottom of the valley cannot quite be seen for the trees.
So for many areas the situation will be more unpredictable, a chance of road strikes; rely more on domestic flights for transport, but Kathmandu and the Everest region are completely unaffected. There will be a partial blockade of roads from 2-12 April.
The King has decisively taken over
Kathmandu is functioning normally, indeed better than the last 6 years. I can see no reason for anybody to cancel their Everest trek plans. Annapurna and other areas should be planned more carefully.
With some (corrupt and/or incompetent) politicians under house arrest and King directing the Government the mood in Kathmandu is one of cautious optimism, this long overdue move was absolutely necessary to save the country - literally - and finally Nepal might be ruled by people who actually care. There are plenty of changes being made in government departments, all for the better.
The main blot is the appalling human rights situation, both from the Maoists and the Army; and the Army who specialize in peace-keeping should know better.
Background
Since the arrival of democracy in 1991 successive governments were feudal in behavior, grossly corrupt, shortsighted and narrow-minded and by neglecting basic development allowed a Maoist insurgency to start in 1996. As the stakes were raised to the point of a gun against the country's head, not one of the main political leaders could get their fingers out of the honey pot, proving time and time again they were utterly, hopelessly incapable of solving the country's multitude of problems. The ordinary Nepali people have suffered immensely. Thankfully, finally, 1 Feb 2005, the King has taken over with the intention of reforming the country and holding elections within 3 years.
Nepal security assessment
I completely revised this in March 2005 to reflect the new realities here in Nepal; until proven otherwise I see conditions improving.
The troubles in Nepal must be put in perspective. Trekking sensibly in Nepal is still MUCH safer than trekking-travelling around the USA or Italy, the incidence of theft-robbery in Nepal is still far, far lower than tourist-friendly New Zealand! Read the travel warnings for some of these countries.
Nepal has and will be in the headlines but very few if any incidents actually have any impact on you as a trekker-tourist, although there are the occasional delays caused by transport strikes.
Trekking safety
The Maoist leadership has regularly publicly announced that tourists are welcome to visit Nepal - will that change? I don't think so. The chances of you getting caught between the army and Maoists is marginally higher - but from a point of almost zero risk previously.
The Everest region from Lukla and above is a haven of peace, COMPLETELY SAFE for trekking, no Maoists at all. It is COMPLETELY SAFE for American, British and Belgian trekkers too, despite the government warnings. In other areas it is possible that Maoists meet the group and they ask (politely initially) for a donation, see the Trailblazer guide book updates section.
So should you come trekking in Nepal with us? If you are joining an Everest region trek, definitely. We fly in; no buses. For other regions don't let the headlines put you off but do discuss with us.
For the October-November season we suggest you book your flights now, if there is any positive development it could get very busy. We welcome bookings now and always have a "plan b" - but equally you are welcome to express interest and book in May-June after watching developments. So far it is shaping up well, for trouble now and calm then, and anyway we trek over the main Dasain (Nepal's "Christmas") holidays when traditionally there is a ceasefire.
The UK Ambassador says
"The fact remains that not a single foreigner has been kidnapped or killed as a result of the eight-year-old insurgency. During that time, the country has received more than three million visitors. The risk of being a victim of Maoist violence is clearly much lower than the risks of going trekking, mountaineering, rafting, or simply going in a bus," said Keith Bloomfield, 57, the British Ambassador to Nepal. "The threat is fairly small."
Kathmandu
Everyone who spends time here wonders what all the fuss is about, Kathmandu is functioning completely normally. Walking alone at night in Kathmandu is still surprisingly safe; I wouldn't do that in San Francisco.
Trekking in India is SAFE and a GREAT alternative.
Tibet-China has zero security concerns.
http://project-himalaya.com/treki-security-nepal.html
15 March: I have refrained from commenting on the new situation in Nepal until now.
The Maoists have been fracturing, now the hardliner elements have taken over, and while things will get worse for a time, this is the beginning of the end for them. They are losing control. They already have zero popular support anywhere in the hills, including their supposed strongholds in Far West Nepal, but are blind to this. Now regional commanders have been given autonomy, no pretence that they have central control, and those regional commanders will make big mistakes. Nepal is nearly at the bottom of the valley with the hill of peace visible ahead; although the bottom of the valley cannot quite be seen for the trees.
So for many areas the situation will be more unpredictable, a chance of road strikes; rely more on domestic flights for transport, but Kathmandu and the Everest region are completely unaffected. There will be a partial blockade of roads from 2-12 April.
The King has decisively taken over
Kathmandu is functioning normally, indeed better than the last 6 years. I can see no reason for anybody to cancel their Everest trek plans. Annapurna and other areas should be planned more carefully.
With some (corrupt and/or incompetent) politicians under house arrest and King directing the Government the mood in Kathmandu is one of cautious optimism, this long overdue move was absolutely necessary to save the country - literally - and finally Nepal might be ruled by people who actually care. There are plenty of changes being made in government departments, all for the better.
The main blot is the appalling human rights situation, both from the Maoists and the Army; and the Army who specialize in peace-keeping should know better.
Background
Since the arrival of democracy in 1991 successive governments were feudal in behavior, grossly corrupt, shortsighted and narrow-minded and by neglecting basic development allowed a Maoist insurgency to start in 1996. As the stakes were raised to the point of a gun against the country's head, not one of the main political leaders could get their fingers out of the honey pot, proving time and time again they were utterly, hopelessly incapable of solving the country's multitude of problems. The ordinary Nepali people have suffered immensely. Thankfully, finally, 1 Feb 2005, the King has taken over with the intention of reforming the country and holding elections within 3 years.
Nepal security assessment
I completely revised this in March 2005 to reflect the new realities here in Nepal; until proven otherwise I see conditions improving.
The troubles in Nepal must be put in perspective. Trekking sensibly in Nepal is still MUCH safer than trekking-travelling around the USA or Italy, the incidence of theft-robbery in Nepal is still far, far lower than tourist-friendly New Zealand! Read the travel warnings for some of these countries.
Nepal has and will be in the headlines but very few if any incidents actually have any impact on you as a trekker-tourist, although there are the occasional delays caused by transport strikes.
Trekking safety
The Maoist leadership has regularly publicly announced that tourists are welcome to visit Nepal - will that change? I don't think so. The chances of you getting caught between the army and Maoists is marginally higher - but from a point of almost zero risk previously.
The Everest region from Lukla and above is a haven of peace, COMPLETELY SAFE for trekking, no Maoists at all. It is COMPLETELY SAFE for American, British and Belgian trekkers too, despite the government warnings. In other areas it is possible that Maoists meet the group and they ask (politely initially) for a donation, see the Trailblazer guide book updates section.
So should you come trekking in Nepal with us? If you are joining an Everest region trek, definitely. We fly in; no buses. For other regions don't let the headlines put you off but do discuss with us.
For the October-November season we suggest you book your flights now, if there is any positive development it could get very busy. We welcome bookings now and always have a "plan b" - but equally you are welcome to express interest and book in May-June after watching developments. So far it is shaping up well, for trouble now and calm then, and anyway we trek over the main Dasain (Nepal's "Christmas") holidays when traditionally there is a ceasefire.
The UK Ambassador says
"The fact remains that not a single foreigner has been kidnapped or killed as a result of the eight-year-old insurgency. During that time, the country has received more than three million visitors. The risk of being a victim of Maoist violence is clearly much lower than the risks of going trekking, mountaineering, rafting, or simply going in a bus," said Keith Bloomfield, 57, the British Ambassador to Nepal. "The threat is fairly small."
Kathmandu
Everyone who spends time here wonders what all the fuss is about, Kathmandu is functioning completely normally. Walking alone at night in Kathmandu is still surprisingly safe; I wouldn't do that in San Francisco.
Trekking in India is SAFE and a GREAT alternative.
Tibet-China has zero security concerns.
http://project-himalaya.com/treki-security-nepal.html