yakshaver
2nd February 2005, 06:21 AM
Here's my two bobs worth:
Of course everyone is in a bit of a shock, but let's just hold our horses for a day or so. The airport was closed for a day and a half and phone lines were cut very recently, when the 11 unfortunate Nepali workers were killed in Irak.
The situation may well get to what Soren on another forum aptly called "Nepal-normal". According to the BBC the armourd vehicles paroling the streets were taken away by the afternoon or ealry evening. Others are saying that while Indian aircraft has definitely been affected, some international airlines are resuming flights, e.g Quatar Airlines. I am trying to confirm this, and if someone has more information please share it.
In the past when something like this happened did get back to Nepali-normal in a couple of days. We'll soon be able to tell if the recent events have a similar effect or not. I expect that the Nepali media may well end up being more censored than before. But I expect the phone lines and Airport to be operational very soon, if they are not already so to some extent at present.
King Gyanendra has gone a step further and taken the reins directly and openly. Of course he has done it (indirectly) just recently, over the last couple of years; the cabiets of prime-ministers Chand and Thapa were just fronts for the King... We have had over 2003-04 the ongoing protests of the "five agitating parties" leading to the apointment of Deuba with the specific (and some say impossible) brief to make peace with the Maoists and call elections.
Neither goal was acheived, or not in an expected timeframe. I am not discussing here whether the king was genuine in his brief to the Deuba cabinet, whether Deuba received the right support, whether he did the right thing or not. For whatever reason the king decided to play swift and play hard. What will be the consequences? Time will tell. It depends on many issues, and this not the space to speculate at length.
Relevant to this website, what would be the consequences for tourists-trekkers? At this stage as mentioned, I believe that the situation will stabilise into something similar to what it was before yesterday: with the usual protests, bandhs etc., which we have seen over the last few years. Depending on how the king and his appointed cabinet will handle things, these protests will be more intense or more subdued to what happened in 2004 before the Deuba cabinet came to power.
It seems to me the king's move is more a strategic one initially. In other words it will take time to develop at the tactical and operational level on the ground. He's still to name the promised cabinet. So after the initial shock, Nepal may well settle into the by now habitual uncertainty in which it has lived for the last 4 years or so. When real action will happen - whether real peace negotiations with the Maoists, or whatever else - we'll be able to tell more. The Maoists for their part have consistently said that they see the Deuba government as a powerless puppet and want to talk directly to the king. Now they have an oportunity to do just that. Thers' no one else in power to talk to.
Right now I see no reason to change plans. Our booking is still there and we'll be in Nepal in 8 weeks. I guess if it was to be open warfare with the Maoists in the KTD valley, I might rethink the situation, but not for other reasons. I believe the Maoists over the next 2-3 months will have a "wait and see" attitude. They will be very interested where Gyanendra is comming from and what will he bring the negotiations table. Hence I predict either a) more or less the same from the Maobadi, or b) they may even be a bit more quiet, in the short term at least. One of the king's specific stated aims is to start real negotiations and bring about peace. Let's see...
Ok, back to shaving now.
Of course everyone is in a bit of a shock, but let's just hold our horses for a day or so. The airport was closed for a day and a half and phone lines were cut very recently, when the 11 unfortunate Nepali workers were killed in Irak.
The situation may well get to what Soren on another forum aptly called "Nepal-normal". According to the BBC the armourd vehicles paroling the streets were taken away by the afternoon or ealry evening. Others are saying that while Indian aircraft has definitely been affected, some international airlines are resuming flights, e.g Quatar Airlines. I am trying to confirm this, and if someone has more information please share it.
In the past when something like this happened did get back to Nepali-normal in a couple of days. We'll soon be able to tell if the recent events have a similar effect or not. I expect that the Nepali media may well end up being more censored than before. But I expect the phone lines and Airport to be operational very soon, if they are not already so to some extent at present.
King Gyanendra has gone a step further and taken the reins directly and openly. Of course he has done it (indirectly) just recently, over the last couple of years; the cabiets of prime-ministers Chand and Thapa were just fronts for the King... We have had over 2003-04 the ongoing protests of the "five agitating parties" leading to the apointment of Deuba with the specific (and some say impossible) brief to make peace with the Maoists and call elections.
Neither goal was acheived, or not in an expected timeframe. I am not discussing here whether the king was genuine in his brief to the Deuba cabinet, whether Deuba received the right support, whether he did the right thing or not. For whatever reason the king decided to play swift and play hard. What will be the consequences? Time will tell. It depends on many issues, and this not the space to speculate at length.
Relevant to this website, what would be the consequences for tourists-trekkers? At this stage as mentioned, I believe that the situation will stabilise into something similar to what it was before yesterday: with the usual protests, bandhs etc., which we have seen over the last few years. Depending on how the king and his appointed cabinet will handle things, these protests will be more intense or more subdued to what happened in 2004 before the Deuba cabinet came to power.
It seems to me the king's move is more a strategic one initially. In other words it will take time to develop at the tactical and operational level on the ground. He's still to name the promised cabinet. So after the initial shock, Nepal may well settle into the by now habitual uncertainty in which it has lived for the last 4 years or so. When real action will happen - whether real peace negotiations with the Maoists, or whatever else - we'll be able to tell more. The Maoists for their part have consistently said that they see the Deuba government as a powerless puppet and want to talk directly to the king. Now they have an oportunity to do just that. Thers' no one else in power to talk to.
Right now I see no reason to change plans. Our booking is still there and we'll be in Nepal in 8 weeks. I guess if it was to be open warfare with the Maoists in the KTD valley, I might rethink the situation, but not for other reasons. I believe the Maoists over the next 2-3 months will have a "wait and see" attitude. They will be very interested where Gyanendra is comming from and what will he bring the negotiations table. Hence I predict either a) more or less the same from the Maobadi, or b) they may even be a bit more quiet, in the short term at least. One of the king's specific stated aims is to start real negotiations and bring about peace. Let's see...
Ok, back to shaving now.